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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd